The 2024 U.S. election and your portfolio
Here’s a look at what’s at stake in the November 5 U.S. election, analysis of historical stock market trends in election years, and portfolio considerations for long- and short-term investors.
What’s at stake—U.S. election 2024
Voters will choose a president and decide the makeup of the entire House of Representatives and about one-third of
the Senate.
Who's in power now?
Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House; Democrats hold a slimmer edge in the Senate and they control
the White House.
Key 2024 election dates
- January 15–June 8: state presidential primaries and caucuses
- July 15–18: Republican National Convention, Milwaukee
- August 19–22: Democratic National Convention, Chicago
- November 5: Election Day
- January 3, 2025: 119th Congress convenes
- January 20, 2025: 60th presidential inauguration
Elections and market history
Financial markets have generally shown resilience throughout four-year presidential election cycles, with changes in political party control of the White House and Congress appearing to have little discernible difference on long-term stock market performance. While election seasons can stir up strong emotions in investors and drive market volatility, trying to time the markets or make investment decisions based on perceived election trends could prove unwise versus simply investing for the long term.
Explore performance
Control of the White House
Stocks have risen over the long term no matter which party has been in the White House
Growth of a hypothetical $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index, 1/31/28–12/31/23
Election cycles
In four-year election cycles, stock performance has typically been best in the year prior to a presidential election
S&P 500 Index performance, 1928–2023
Party control
How stocks have performed under six different political scenarios
Average annual returns of the S&P 500 Index when different political parties were in power, 1928–2023 (%)
Election- vs. nonelection years
Relative to nonelection years, stocks have tended to lag prior to Election Day but come back following the vote
Cumulative average returns of the S&P 500 Index during 18-month periods before and after presidential and midterm elections versus nonelection periods, 1/31/28–12/31/23 (%)
60/40 portfolios
60/40 stock-bond portfolio performance has slightly lagged in presidential election years vs. nonelection years
Annual returns of a 60/40 portfolio, 1954–2023 (%)
Election volatility
Stock market volatility has been modest before and after recent presidential elections—with some exceptions
Cboe Volatility Index 30-day moving average in the 100 days before and after U.S. presidential elections, 1992–2020
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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